Posted by: pyeager | May 19, 2011

NOAA 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast: Above-Normal Season

By Paul Yeager, author of Weather Whys: Facts, Myths, and Oddities

NOAA (specifically the Climate Prediction Center) has issued its 2011 Atlantic basin hurricane season forecast today, predicting an above-normal season.

Here are a few of the details of the forecast:

  • 12-18 named storms (tropical storms and hurricanes)
  • 6-10 hurricanes
  • 3-6 major hurricanes (Categore 3 or higher, or a sustained wind of 111 mph or higher)
  • 70% likelihood of a more active-than-nomal season (average season is 11 named storms, including 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes).

The forecast was based on a number of factors, including:

  • the continuation of the multi-decadal cycle of active atlantic seasons (current cycle began in 1995)
  • warm Atlantic Ocean water (not as warm as last year but up to 2 degrees F higher than average)
  • La Nina, which is expected to reduce wind shear in the Atlantic basin into hurricane season even though it’s expected to be completely dissipated by the end of June
  • seasonal climate models indicate an above-normal season

The NOAA release notes that some climate models indicate that the season could be similar to some of the very active seasons since 1995. I’ll give some stats about hurricane seasons since 1995 in a future post.

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  1. […] NOAA 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast: Above-Normal Season …Description : NOAA (specifically the Climate Prediction Center) has issued its 2011 Atlantic basin hurricane season forecast today, predicting an above-normal season. Here are a few of the details of the forecast: …http://cloudyandcool.com/2011/ .. […]


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