Posted by: pyeager | November 15, 2010

Thanksgiving Day Forecast

POST UPDATED 11/15/10

By Paul Yeager, author of Weather Whys: Facts, Myths, and Oddities

Let’s take an early look at the forecast for Thanksgiving Day across the United States–well, at least the prediction from one computer model, the Global Forecasting System (GFS).

This is just one run of one computer model, which is likely to change, so I recommend that you check with your favorite local weather Web site for the latest details of the forecast.

When I did this last year, it turned out to be more of an exercise in watching the computer model change rather than a useful forecast (see Thanksgiving Leftovers).

Regardless, let’s took at the forecast for 7 a.m. on Thanksgiving Day, which is the 252-hour forecast on the GFS:

  • Cold from the northern Plains to the Northeast, with a bit of light snow in northern Michigan and perhaps in the lee of the Great Lakes
  • Showers in the Deep South and Carolinas
  • Dry and mild in the Southwest and Rockies
  • Chilly storm in the Pacific Northwest, with rain and mountain snow. Snow levels will be quite low.

Those are the highlights, and I’ll occasionally post an update to the GFS forecast in the coming days. When the day gets closer, I’ll talk a little more about the potential weather problems on Thanksgiving Day and the key travel days leading up to it.


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