Posted by: pyeager | September 27, 2009

Typical El Nino Winter Versus NWS Forecast

I recently mentioned that the current 2009-2010 winter forecast by the National Weather Service had similarities to a typical El Nino Winter (NOAA Winter 2009-2019 Winter Forecast), so I thought I’d briefly compare the two (typical El Nino winter and the government forecast) today.

For other winter forecasts, please see Snowy, Cold Winter on the Way? and Harsh 2010 Winter Forecast.

Remember, I’m not confident that this El Nino will be strong enough to be a significant player during the upcoming winter (Current El Nino–Still Weak), but I thought this comparison was still worthwhile.

Typical El Nino Temperature Anomalies

Typical El Nino temperatures anamolies across U.S. (courtesy National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

Typical El Nino temperatures anomalies across U.S. (courtesy National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

Current December through February Forecast for Temperatures

Government winter 2009-2019 temperature forecast

Government winter 2009-2019 temperature forecast

The temperature forecast is very similar.

Typical El Nino Precipitation Anomalies

Typical effects of El Nino during U.S. winter (courtesty of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

Typical effects of El Nino during U.S. winter (courtesty of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

Current December through February Forecast for Precipitation

NOAA winter 2009-2010 precipitation forecast

NOAA winter 2009-2010 precipitation forecast

The precipitation forecast is similar, but the likelihood of wet weather in much of California is downplayed by the forecast compared to typical El Nino winter.

The precipitation forecast does not include a snow forecast, but we’ll look at what a typical El Nino winter brings as far as snow is concerned soon.

–Paul Yeager


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