Posted by: pyeager | July 2, 2009

Super-Long-Range Forecast

I am by no means a long-range forecasting expert; however, I believe in giving the people what they want, and since interest in long-range forecasting by the public is at a record high, I decided that I should at least give one long-range forecast.

Super-Long-Range Forecast

The 2070s and 2170s are going to be very cold in the East and unusually warm in the West.

I used three basic forecasting tools to develop my bold, super-long-range forecast: 1) a general knowledge of history from high school, 2) my limited memory from my youthful days in the 1970s, and 3) an exhaustive yet cursory look at weather data.

Cold in Valley Forge in 1770s

We all know that it was very cold in Valley Forge in the 1770s; otherwise, George Washington’s soldiers would not have roasted and eaten their boots. They’d have ordered in cheesesteaks instead, but no one would’ve delivered because it was so cold.

I also know that it was cold in the 1970s since I was delivering newspapers in Pennsylvania at the time; therefore, based on my 200-year-cycle theory of forecasting, it will be cold in the East in the 2170s, which would be balanced by unseasonable warmth in the West.

Benjamin Franklin Spent Too Much Time in France

When I was looking through the Philadelphia records to confirm my 200-year cycle theory, I made a startling discovery. While I couldn’t find any record low temperatures for the 1770s (my theory is that Benjamin Franklin was too busy attending parties in France to keep weather records, which was supposed to be his charge in Philadelphia), I discovered numerous record low temperatures from the 1870s. Obviously, I was working with a 100-year cycle, not a 200-year cycle; I quickly updated my forecast to include the 2070s, as well as the 2170s.

Western Impact

Of course, what good is a forecast, even a super-long-range one, if it doesn’t give details of the economic impact that will be felt by residents. For the West, it will be warm with no water in the 2070s and 2170s. Try to save some of the water that ran out of the mountains in spring for later use. Also, think about desalinization plants since most of our water will be too polluted to drink by then.

Philadelphia Impact

For Philadelphia, the effects could be devastating, and I don’t use that term in an “It Could Happen Tomorrow” sort of way. I mean it. I predict that Cheez Whiz will freeze rock solid in the 2070s, ruining the local economy that will still depend solely on cheesesteaks for its existence. That won’t be a problem by the 2170s, though, since all food, including Cheez Whiz, will be synthetic and able to withstand cold by that time.

In the 2170s, there will be a more serious problem. The parade to celebrate the Eagles first championship–SuperBowl CCXIII–the team’s first championship, will be canceled because of the cold.

–Paul Yeager


Responses

  1. Just started reading your book, it’s a hoot!!

    (e)lf

    • Thanks!


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